Martial Law: Many Marawis

This week the Supreme Court began and finished hearing oral arguments on the petitions against the year long extension of martial law. As during any hearing a lot of interesting and important revelations came about. But before exploring any of those let's get a grip on the mindset of the Supreme Court.  One of the justices anyway. Ostensibly the Supreme Court represents the best and brightest legal minds in the country. They live and breathe the law. Day and night they digest its contents and ponder its meaning so when one of the justices gives voice to his fears the nation would do well to sit up and listen.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/960901/sc-justice-fears-movies-about-terrorism-could-become-reality

“How can the republic survive if there was another kind of threat worse than rebellion or invasion,” a Supreme Court Associate Justice asked Tuesday as he noted that President Rodrigo Duterte’s martial law is already emasculated compared to that of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos. 

“Like what, your honor?” asked former Commission on Elections (Comelec) Chairman Christian Monsod who was one of the framers of the 1987 Constitution. 

“Drone can be operated as far as US attacking some abandoned place in Afghanistan. That is what I see in the internet,” Associate Justice Lucas Bersamin said. 

Monsod said a drone, even a million drones cannot threaten the life and survival of the government. 

“Oh I watched so many movies like White House has fallen, London has fallen. These are very terrifying realities that could happen in a few years’ time,”  Bersamin said, adding that the framers crafted a constitution “that constricted the use of the ultimate power to actual invasion and actual rebellion.”

“What if these [movies] become a reality,” Bersamin asked. 

“A thousand, a million drones cannot occupy a country,” Monsod said. 

“Oh you are so confident,” Bersamin said to which Monsod responded: “I have not seen movies like that.” 

This is an amazing exchange of dialogue between Supreme Court Justice Bersamin and one of the framers of the current constitution. What it reveals is that Bersamin is not a very good student of the cinema. Did he pay attention to "White House Has Fallen?" (He is confusing the movies "White House Down" and "Olympus Has Fallen" which are basically the same film with different titles.) In no movie have the terrorists ever won. Ever. Air Force One, Die Hard, Delta Force, not one time. Terrorists are always defeated by a lone wolf anti-hero be it Harrison Ford, Chuck Norris, Gerard Butler, or Bruce Willis. The lesson here is that the Philippines needs a single hero and not martial law to stop the terrorists. The Philippines needs a Jackie Chan, "The Foreigner", to sniff out the bad guys and use his "very particular set of skills he has acquired over a very long career that make him a nightmare for people like them."

Is this guy serious about terrorists launching a drone war in the Philippines? I understand we must prepare for any eventuality but not every possibility is probable. It is possible that the USA could drop a nuclear bomb on Manila. But it is not likely at all. It is even less likely that terrorists will launch a drone war against anyone anywhere at anytime. The manpower, the money, the technology required is out of their league. The USA can operate drones via satellite from thousands of miles away because the USA has a technologically advanced military which no rag-tag group of jungle Muslims could ever hope to compete with.

Alright now a few revelations. The biggest one being perhaps this:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/193790-marvic-leonen-martial-law-intelligence-information-congress

“In the entirety of the deliberations of martial law, Congress did not have the opportunity to look at the context of the intelligence information given to you,” Leonen said, interpellating one of the petitioners, Albay Representative Edcel Lagman. 

Leonen pointed out that Congress was made to rely only on the letters of President Rodrigo Duterte, the Secretary of National Defense, and the military chief. 

Lagman said there was a briefing but that it was not enough. The congressman said that their interpellations of the resource persons also did not tackle much because each representative was given only 3 minutes each. 

“We could not exhaust all possible questions we had to ask,” Lagman said.

The Congress was given only a few letters from the President, Lorenzna, and the AFP Chief. They did not get to look over intel or ask many questions. They did not even get specifics on the operational details of martial law. In essence it was a foregone conclusion Congress would approve the extension so there was no need to consider any information about the situation on the ground therefore very little was given.

During the hearings the AFP finally revealed how many foreign terrorists are operating in the country.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/01/17/1778670/military-claims-there-are-48-foreign-terrorists-mindanao

The government has monitored 48 foreign terrorists operating and recruiting in Mindanao, the military told the Supreme Court on Wednesday. 

Maj. Gen. Fernando Trinidad, Armed Forces of the Philippines deputy chief of staff for Intelligence, said that there has been an "influx" of foreign terrorists, "in the guise of tourists and businessmen," in the southern Philippines. 

He said that, last November, 15 terrorists from Indonesia and Malaysia entered Mindanao to augment the Maute terrorist group in Sarangani. In December 2017, another 16 Indonesians entered the country to train the members of the Abu Sayyaf groups in Basilan, and Maute Group in Lanao del Sur. 

In January 2018, Trinidad said that it was reported that an Egyptian national also entered the country.

Only 48? Does that really count as an influx? Are these the 48 the AFP said they were monitoring during the Marawi siege? Why are they so confident of of this number AND their nationalities when only a few days ago they weren't sure if foreign terrorists had entered the country at all? What else do they know about these men and why haven't they gone to apprehend them? What are they waiting for?

What exactly is the nature of the threat which makes a year long extension necessary?

http://news.abs-cbn.com/focus/01/17/18/military-dissects-mindanao-terror-threats-before-sc

Trinidad said despite gains by government forces during the past 7 months under martial law in the southern Philippine region, rebellion by various local groups, aggravated by the participation of foreign terrorists, persists.  

He explained that prior to the Marawi siege, the military has already been battling various terrorist groups such as the Abu Sayyaf, the Maute Group, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), and the Turaife Group.  

“This indicates that even before the Marawi crisis, there was already an ongoing rebellion by the Daula Islamiyah, whose intention is to establish an ISIS (Islamic State) territory, and by the communist rebels whose ultimate goal is to overthrow the government. Apart from this, the BIFF also intends to secede from the Philippines,” Trinidad told High Court justices.

If there was an actual ongoing rebellion before Marawi why was martial law not declared then? The AFP has known since 2014 that ISIS is in the country. They knew a month before the attack that Marawi was being targeted for a takeover. Why martial law now but not then? The threat is the same one we have all known about and which has been continuing for decades: Muslims and communists behaving badly and fighting against the government. Nothing new here except for the inclusion of the communist NPA amongst the ranks of rebels and terrorists. Which brings us to Calida's testimony.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/01/18/1778710/calida-npa-rebellion-nationwide-no-need-martial-law-across-philippines

Solicitor General Jose Calida on Wednesday said the ongoing rebellion that justified the extension of martial law in Mindanao is happening nationwide although there is no need for a declaration covering the entire Philippines. 

Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, interpellating Calida at oral arguments on martial law, pointed out that the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People's Army operates nationwide. 

He asked: "If the President can declare martial law in Mindanao because of CPP-NPA, can the President declare martial law in the entire Philippines?"  

Calida pointed out that Duterte did not — the original martial law declaration was premised on the Maute attack on Marawi in Lanao del Sur in May 2017 — and added that the Constitution restricts martial law in times of invasion or rebellion "when public safety requires it." 

Calida conceded that while he believes Duterte will not place the entire Philippines under martial law, "in the realm of possibilities, it is possible." 

The government's chief legal counsel insisted that there is no need for a nationwide declaration and that the government is aware that the martial law proclamation only covers Mindanao.

From the Inquirer:

“CPP-NPA is nationwide,” Carpio noted. “If the President can declare martial law in Mindanao because of CPP-NPA, can the President declare martial law in the entire Philippines?” 

Calida said that would not be necessary. 

“But if you follow the argument that the CPP-NPA [threat] is nationwide, legally the President can declare martial law throughout the entire Philippines because there is an ongoing rebellion nationwide,” Carpio said. 

“But he did not,” Calida said. 

“But he can,” Carpio said. 

“There is the accompanying requisite of public safety that requires it [martial law declaration],” Calida said. 

Carpio asked if the first condition of an actual rebellion by the CPP-NPA had been complied with. 

Calida said yes. But he added. “I believe that he will not impose martial law in the entire Philippines.” 

“We are not talking of what you believe. We are talking of the possibilities, the legal possibilities,” Carpio said.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/961340/carpio-says-its-legally-possible-to-extend-martial-law-coverage-nationwide

"The original martial law declaration was premised on the Maute attack on Marawi." If we follow Calida's argument here the fact that the attack on Marawi is over means martial law should also be over since the original premise is no longer existent. Since Marawi is over and since the AFP admits there was an ongoing rebellion before Marawi and since there was no martial law before Marawi why then must there be an extension of martial law now to confront the same conditions which existed before Marawi? How exactly will the suspension of the writ of habeas corpus enable the AFP to hunt down and kill terrorists when they were doing this very thing prior to the declaration of martial law?

Calida is very eager to affirm that there will be no nationwide martial law.  But he cannot make this affirmation.  If the NPA is engaged in rebellion and if the NPA is nationwide then that means legally martial law can be extended over the country. Calida wishes for us and the Supreme Court to rely on the good faith and promises and intentions of the President and on his own belief that the President would not do such a thing. What if the NPA launches drone attacks simultaneously on Manila, Davao, Cebu, Iloilo, and Quezon City? What then? Jackie Chan won't be there to save the country. It will be martial law nationwide and all of Calida's beliefs will be shattered.  He will need to find a new faith.

So much for the Supreme Court. They won't be making a decision until after the 24th which is the deadline they have given for the government to submit their final paperwork on the case.

Now it's time for some action! Those darn terrorists are out there planning trouble. 

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/01/18/1778949/duterte-warns-fresh-terrorist-threat

The country faces a terrorist threat, and it’s “coming in very fast,” with the warning issued by President Duterte himself. 

Duterte gave the warning shortly after he inaugurated the satellite-based new air traffic management system in Pasay City last Tuesday. 

The President said he would call an emergency meeting with security officials soon to discuss the threat. 

“I’m reminded of the serious threat now, but I hope that you have to raise awareness not only of the senses – and just maybe it’s good to anticipate that there’s going to be one (terror act),” he said, adding that the attacks would target public places where crowds gather. 

“They’d like to blow up where our people converge such as airports, pantalan (pier), park … because of what happened in Mindanao provinces today. As I have said, the threat remains,” he said.

I like how Duterte absentmindedly slips this terror warning into his speech like he is reminiscing upon seeing an object from his past. What need is there to call an emergency meeting with security officials? Surely if there really was a threat they would have been briefed already, right? Targeting public places is nothing new for the Islamic terror groups in Mindanao. They have set off bombs at the public market in Davao as well as at churches.

Duterte can't even get his story straight.  He says he is reminded of a terrorist threat as if it is specific but then mentions attacks targeting public places as if the threat is vague and general.  If there is a rebellion, an actual rebellion with actual war, then obviously a general threat of terrorism remains. But to speak as if he had received information about a specific threat and then indicate that he had not revealed this information to his security officials is nonsense. How did he get the information if not from his security officials!?

There is only one way to defeat these terrorists once and for all. The Philippine government must establish an official Islamic State in Mindanao.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/961706/duterte-warns-of-many-marawis-if-bangsamoro-law-is-not-passed

“[The President said] if there is conflict [in Mindanao] and we do not pass BBL and war ensues, you are looking at Marawi 10 times or 50 times over,” said Zubiri, who heads a Senate subcommittee handling the proposed measure.

How will there be more Marawis if BBL is not passed? He does not say. But it sounds good. It sounds bad actually but that's what makes it sounds good. Using the prospect of war to sell an idea that will certainly guarantee more war. How will it guarantee more war? Because all the armed groups will be vying for power. Abu Sayyaf, BIFF, Maute, they will all rise up against MNLF and MILF in a bid for control of the region. 

Until the BBL is passed and even without martial law there is much work for the AFP to do in Mindanao and Marawi.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/962140/search-for-bombs-delays-marawi-rehab

The military expects clearing operations to be finished by April. Brawner said by that time, the Task Force Bangon Marawi could start rebuilding efforts.

Remember when Lorenzana said, "Two months to normalcy in Marawi"? It's going to be much longer than that. 

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/01/20/1779532/military-boosts-security-mindanao

They say they are boosting security but I can't help thinking they cannot do this job all alone.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/01/20/1779630/us-intensifies-anti-terrorism-ops-philippines-new-military-mission

http://archive.is/aDQvs

The U.S. military has launched a new counterterrorism mission in the Philippines, making operations there eligible for the same funding used to finance the long-running wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, military officials said. 

The decision by the Trump administration to elevate the U.S. mission to an Overseas Contingency Operation, or OCO, was made last September in response to a Philippines government request for more support to fight extremist groups, officials said. 

OCO funds typically are exempt from limits on routine spending and have financed U.S. wars known by such names as Operation Enduring Freedom, the official name of the “War on Terror.” 

U.S. officials say that the Armed Forces of the Philippines, while motivated, still has a lot to learn about urban warfare, having had far more experience in jungle combat. 

U.S. efforts in the Philippines previously were linked to Operation Enduring Freedom, but were wound down 2014. The new effort carries its own designation, the first such formal operation against Islamic State in East Asia. 

Some U.S. officials have speculated that halting the previous mission was a mistake because it led to a vacuum that allowed Islamic State to expand and eventually capture Marawi. 

“This reflects the significance of the threat and the desire on the part of the U.S. government to get ahead of the problem, not wait until it more fully metastasizes,” Mr. Felter said. The siege of Marawi last year, he said “was somewhat of a wake-up call.”

This is great! Not because the AFP is going to be getting the help it needs but because the U.S. military is very discreetly calling the AFP unprepared and unable to handle this situation on their own. That last line about a wake-up call is hilarious! He is not saying that Marawi was a wake-up call about the strength of ISIS in the Philippines. No, no, no.  He is saying that Marwai was a wake-up call about the incompetency of the AFP since they KNEW about the attack in advance, did nothing to stop it, and took 5 months to reclaim the city. 

And what about winding down operations in 2014? In 2014 Obama signed a ten year agreement with the Philippines to keep a U.S. military presence in the country. U.S. forces have not left though some would like to see them go. This new mission was also entered into back in September at the REQUEST of the Philippine government which means Duterte agreed to it! For all his anti-American, pro-China rhetoric Duterte knows this war cannot be won without the assistance of the Americans. China would never offer this kind of assistance. Now with unlimited funds the U.S. and the Philippines can face this threat head-on with confidence. 

It's a little too easy to get carried away by all this. What if the Americans are here not to defeat ISIS but to flex their might towards China and North Korea? What if China's explorations in the Benham Rise is a way for them to flex their muscles towards the Americans and make headway into the Pacific? What if ISIS is a CIA creation and the Americans are here to fight what is their own doing in the first place?  What if the Philippines is just a pawn in everyone's game? Commenting on these geopolitical chess games is beyond me and beyond the scope of this article. 

What remains true is that Muslims and communists are a plague in Mindanao and everywhere else you go. There is no nation that has not felt the scourge of these groups and until they are gone there will be no peace in Mindanao or the rest of the Philippines.