China is the Red Dragon Rising that just won't go away. Ever since Duterte took office he has been making overtures to China in a bid to obtain loans and other investments in the Philippines as it relates to his massive economic plan "Build, Build, Build." Last week Duterte visited China and spoke plenty of nice and loving words about that country and its relationship with the Philippines. A few of these remarks deal directly with the current war against ISIS. However the whole of Duterte's confounding overtures towards China have consequences for the war against terror.
Two years ago the UN ruled that China had violated Philippine covering rights in the Western China Sea. DND Sec Lorenzana welcomed this ruling and hoped that China would abide by it so the Philippines could concentrate on securing its borders.
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| https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/rich-media/139836-delfin-lorenzana-philippine-territorial-defense-priority |
Lorenzana, however, hopes that China eventually honors and respects the decision of the tribunal as it will lessen the external threat the Philippines is facing.
“If we can only get China to respect the ruling, it would be a big load from our back,” he said. “We could probably devote more of our resources to pressing problems at home. “
Improving territorial defense will go hand-in-hand with the 15-year modernization program of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) approved during the administration of President Benigno Aquino III, according to Lorenzana.
At least P60 billion ($2.8 billion) was allocated for AFP modernization during Aquino’s presidency. This equates to 68 completed projects – higher than the 45 projects during the terms of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Joseph Ejercito Estrada, and Fidel V. Ramos. (READ: Aquino and the PH military: Toys for the big boys)
“If you look at the funds that were given by the previous administration, it’s actually almost 3 times the funds given by the past 3 administrations before it,” he emphasized. “It’s big, it’s huge, and we are very thankful to President Aquino for this.”
The second phase of the modernization program which starts in 2017 or early 2018 will be pursued as planned.
Adjustments, however, will be made in line with the new administration of President Rodrigo Duterte.
“We may have to tweak it a little so that we can address the priority of the new president,” he explained. “He said in his pronouncement a couple of weeks ago that we need more helicopters and night flying capabilities so that we can pursue these mandates, criminals, and terrorists that are trying to create trouble in the South.”
Aside from drugs and criminality, ending the operations of the Abu Sayyaf is also one of the “marching orders” of Duterte.
According to Lorenzana, they are now in the process of implementing some plans which include beefing maritime assets and talking with counterparts in nearby countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia.
Talking to other countries is important because “the border is so porous and wide” and the Abu Sayyaf have shifted to kidnapping passengers of fishing boats.
“We are going to hammer out all the details of how we will implement the border patrols, hot pursuit, and control of border, so that we can check who is coming in and out of the country, and from what sides,” he explained.
Operations, however, will be more of a holistic approach as Lorenzana plans to bring other agencies that can provide livelihood and build infrastructure to uplift the lives of people and communities that support the Abu Sayyaf. After all, the solution to the problem “is not only military.”
“We will bring in the whole government there especially those agencies that are concerned with these things,” he said. “Without the support, it would be very difficult for us to eradicate the Abu Sayaff.”
“When they put their support behind you, then the job becomes easier.”
One becomes troubled reading this article in the light of all that has happened since July 2016. Every single one of Lorenzana's hopes has crashed and burned all because of Duterte. He has scrapped weapons and hardware deals thus holding back modernisation plans, he has allowed China to continue to militarise the islands they do not rightfully possess, and as a result the country is less safer now than it was then.
Golez said, while he respects President Rodrigo Duterte's foreign policy aimed at forging friendly ties with China, he believes the Philippines should formally protest China's military actions in the area.
"The least that we should do is to file a protest. We must protest on the record because a non-protest could be construed as acquiescence later if other players come into the picture...because we are the ones most affected, they’ll probably ask us, ‘How come you were quiet when all these things were happening?’," he said.
China has denied militarizing the area, insisting that the artificial islands it has built are "primarily" for civilian use.
Beijing has also repeatedly said that it has sovereignty over virtually all the resource-rich waters, which are also claimed in part by several other countries, and deemed international waters by most of the world.
"Even if there is a certain amount of defense equipment or facilities, it is for maintaining the freedom of navigation," Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said last March.
"Because without such freedom, or without stability in the South China Sea, the Chinese side would be among the first to bear the brunt of it," he added.
China "never has any intention to engage in militarisation in the South China Sea," he said.
The problems here are Duterte's foreign policy and China's lies. It was only a few months after this article that high resolution photographs revealing the military structures on these islands were shown to the world resulting in outrage from the public and a shrugging of the shoulders from the Duterte administration. China has military bases in Philippine territory? So what?
So how exactly is China's military presence in the SCS a danger to the Philippines? How does the militarisation of these man-made islands pose a threat especially in light of the war against ISIS?
Two reasons.
For all his anti-American rhetoric Duterte knows that without American manpower and firepower the AFP would be at a severe disadvantage against ISIS and other terrorists. In fact neither EDCA or Op-Pac-Eagle could happen without his express consent.
So how exactly is China's military presence in the SCS a danger to the Philippines? How does the militarisation of these man-made islands pose a threat especially in light of the war against ISIS?
Two reasons.
- Because of the presence of the United States military in the Philippines under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and Operation Pacific Eagle.
- Because China's military presence makes securing the Western coast of the Philippines very difficult and Philippine military resources must be diverted to watching this threat.
For all his anti-American rhetoric Duterte knows that without American manpower and firepower the AFP would be at a severe disadvantage against ISIS and other terrorists. In fact neither EDCA or Op-Pac-Eagle could happen without his express consent.
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/188459-duterte-trump-edca-military-ties-asean-summit-2017-philippines |
President Rodrigo Duterte, who previously threatened to scrap EDCA, upheld the agreement during his bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump on Monday, November 13.
"The two sides reaffirmed their commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951, as reinforced by the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement," reads a joint statement on the bilateral meeting held on Monday.
EDCA is an agreement which allows the US military to construct facilities and preposition defense assets inside Philippine military bases. The Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of EDCA amid protests that it was a de-facto basing agreement.
Duterte and Trump also hit the "militarization" of the South China Sea in the joint statement that is expected to draw protests from China.
The US committed to continue helping modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines to improve its capabilities on maritime security and domain awareness and humanitarian assistance.
"They also reaffirmed their commitment to continue defense cooperation, including by reinforcing respective national defense capabilities and interoperability and enhancing joint activities, disaster response, and cybersecurity," according to the joint statement.
The following military bases have been identified for the implementation of EDCA:
- Edwin Andrews Air Base in Zamboanga City
- Camp Bautista in Palawan
- Fort Magsaysay in Nueva Ecija
- Basa Air Base in Pampanga
- Lumbia Airport in Cagayan De Oro
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| The locations of all AFP bases the US military is using |
Pro-China Duterte says:
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| http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/649403/duterte-i-love-xi-jinping-need-china-more-than-anybody-else/story/ |
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/04/11/1804806/duterte-philippines-china-partners-war-vs-drugs-terror |
Manila and Beijing stand “shoulder-to-shoulder” in the campaign against terror, he said using the same common description of the Philippines’ security partnership with the United States.Anti-American Duterte says:
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| http://www.businessinsider.com/r-duterte-accuses-us-of-building-permanent-arsenal-in-philippines-2017-1 |
"They're unloading arms in the Philippines now ... I'm serving notice to the armed forces of the United States. Do not do it, I will not allow it," Duterte told a televised news conference.
His comments come after the Pentagon gave the green light to build warehouses, barracks and runways this year under a 2014 Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the two longtime allies.
He also chided the United States for pressuring the Philippines to enforce a ruling last year by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that invalidated most of Beijing's claims to the South China Sea.
He said Washington was putting regional stability at risk and its actions could put the Philippines in "extreme danger" because of the posturing between the United States and China.
"You are egging us ... egging us (on) to force the issue of arbitral judgment," he said, referring to the United States.
"The missiles of China are pointed at the American expeditions," he said, referring to its naval patrols. "A depot would serve as a supply line."
Duterte said he had an "urgent" message to China, asking it to help provide precision-guided missiles so Philippine troops could fight Islamic State-linked militants in the south.
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| http://globalnation.inquirer.net/165465/duterte-turn-cia-something-bad-happens-duterte-cia-us-war-on-drugs-palace |
In a speech in Malacañang, President Duterte recalled that the US’ sale of firearms to the country was blocked after senators questioned it, alleging that there were rights violations in the Philippines.
What he did was to turn to China and Russia for help, and these two countries provided him with firearms for free.
Up to now, he said Russia and China have yet to ask him for anything in exchange, not even a military alliance with them which he is not prepared to enter.
He also said the Americans “really do not honor their word.”His exact words in this speech were:
"Basta sa akin, ang Amerikano does not have a word of honor. Period."
https://pcoo.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/20180405-Speech_of_President_Rodrigo_Roa_Duterte_during_the_Salu-Salo_Kasama_ang_ating_Mahal_na_Pangulo_Dinner_Concert.pdfThese four articles are representative enough of the Jekyll/Hyde nature of Duterte. Note above how Duterte accuses the USA of destabilising the region and endangering the Philippines because of their posturing with China. He also says that missiles are pointed at American expeditions and he is upset that the USA is allegedly stockpiling arms in the Philippines. He then asked China to send missiles to help fight ISIS. That is all from an article dated Jan. 29, 2017. It was four months later that ISIS took Marawi. And who came to the recuse? Not China. The USA. The USA provided weapons and other gadgets as well as assistance with intelligence operations.
Note also above that under EDCA the USA military is located at 5 bases throughout the Philippines. If the missiles on those Chinese man-made islands are pointed at the USA then those bases, on Philippine soil are under direct threat! Those are not American bases either. They are AFP bases to which the Americans have been given access. So the very presence of the Americans puts this country, according to Duterte, right in the firing line of China.
Why did he reaffirm EDCA when Trump visited during the ASEAN last year when doing so would put the Philippines at risk for attack? Why would he sign a treaty that is fundamentally dangerous for the Philippines? If the Americans do not honour their word then why do any business with them?
But all I have done so far is establish that Dutere is inconsistent in this polices towards China and the USA. Let's see how China's military presence in the SCS is a threat. First of all as I noted above Duterte says China's missiles are aimed at the USA, which means they are aimed at the USA military presence in the Philippines, which means China's missiles are aimed at the Philippines.
Second of all is that China's military presence makes it difficult to secure the Western part of the country. Especially when they are now deploying jamming equipment.
Why did he reaffirm EDCA when Trump visited during the ASEAN last year when doing so would put the Philippines at risk for attack? Why would he sign a treaty that is fundamentally dangerous for the Philippines? If the Americans do not honour their word then why do any business with them?
But all I have done so far is establish that Dutere is inconsistent in this polices towards China and the USA. Let's see how China's military presence in the SCS is a threat. First of all as I noted above Duterte says China's missiles are aimed at the USA, which means they are aimed at the USA military presence in the Philippines, which means China's missiles are aimed at the Philippines.
Second of all is that China's military presence makes it difficult to secure the Western part of the country. Especially when they are now deploying jamming equipment.
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/04/10/1804610/china-deployed-jamming-equipment-spratlys-pentagon |
"While China has maintained that the construction of the islands is to ensure safety at sea, navigation assistance, search and rescue, fisheries protection and other nonmilitary functions, electronic-jamming equipment is only for military use," a US Defense Department official told Wall Street Journal.
"These bases appear to be forward military outposts, built for the military, garrisoned by military forces, and designed to project Chinese military power and capability across the breadth of China’s disputed South China Sea claims," Harris told the US Senate in February.
He added that China may use these facilities for "clearly intended purposes" at some point in the future.
Jamming equipment has been installed on these islands which is only for military purposes. Does China want war with the USA? Likely not but if China is sending out jamming signals this could impede intelligence gathering efforts of the US military in conjunction with their stated objectives under Operation Pacific Eagle. These signals could also impede AFP radar in monitoring the coast.
DND Sec Lorenzana says he is not sure about the veracity of this information.
DND Sec Lorenzana says he is not sure about the veracity of this information.
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| http://globalnation.inquirer.net/165683/lorenzana-chinese-jamming-equipment-spratlys-info-needs-confirmation |
“None has been confirmed by us…We will confirm using our resources if there really are jammers and if so what kind: to disrupt communications or disrupt weapons systems,” he told reporters.
“All reports have been coming from the US and we have not received any formal communications to that effect,” Lorenzana said.The US military says China is deploying jamming equipment and despite the fact that the US military is operating in the Philippines Lorenzana says they "have not received any formal communications to the effect"? How believable is that? Not very. The stated purpose of Operation Pacific Eagle is to assist the AFP. Why would the US military not alert the AFP to this new threat? Lorenzana's statement is not believable at all but it is in line with Duterte's policy towards China of walking on tip-toes so as not to rouse the beast. Later on Lorezana will likely issue a deferential statement confirming the presence of this equipment.
Here is a map showing the locations of the islands China is occupying and their nine-dash line which lies well within the Philippines EEZ.
The areas China has wilfully and illegally occupied are close to Luzon and Palawan. With these bases in place the Philippines is prevented from patrolling those areas of its coast.
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| http://globalnation.inquirer.net/165165/china-warns-ph-planes-every-time-fly-west-philippine-sea |
“These [Philippine patrol] planes, every time that they fly over these features of Chinese, they will challenge,” Lorenzana told “The Source,” a CNN Philippines program.
“They will say that you are entering Chinese airspace. Just exchange of words. Then we will say: ‘No, we are passing over Philippine airspace.’ It’s just a play of words every time we have patrols,” he said.
Lorenzana makes it sound like fun and games but it's not. The Philippines is impeded from patrolling these areas properly which makes it prime territory for anyone to sneak into the country. The blue line in the above map indicates the reach of Chinese radar and potentially it's jamming signals. All a would be jihahdi needs to do is silently boat to Palawan and use that as a lunching pad to Mindanao to join his brothers.
It should be noted that the AFP says Palawan is safe.
Whether or not this scenario has happened is not the point. What matters is that it could happen and the presence of Chinese military in the SCS only heightens its possibility.
It should be noted that the AFP says Palawan is safe.
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| http://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1027998 |
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/03/22/1681479/dfa-wants-coast-guard-patrol-panatag |
The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said it is better to use Philippine Coast Guard ships instead of the Navy in patrolling the vicinity of Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc to avoid any provocative move.
“The position of DFA is to ask concerned government agencies to patrol Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoals) using civilian ships,” DFA spokesman Assistant Secretary Charles Jose said in a text message Wednesday.
He said Coast Guard ships patrolling the area can immediately send information on any development there.
The DFA senior official is reacting to the statement made by Associate Justice Antonio Carpio to send Navy ships instead of Coast Guards in the area.
However, Jose said sending Navy ships could be misinterpreted.
This is after Hainan Daily newspaper published the statement made by Sansha Communist Party Secretary Xiao Jie, Mayor of Sansha City, saying that preparations were underway to build an environmental monitoring station on Panatag Shoal which is part of the West Philippine Sea.
Meanwhile, Jose said while waiting for the confirmation that there are moves to build another structure in the West Philippine Sea, the Coast Guard should patrol the area to protect Philippine territory.
He said that once it is confirmed that there is such, “we will file a diplomatic protest.”
Jose pointed out that the Duterte administration is not abandoning the July 2016 ruling of the UN arbitral tribunal favoring the Philippines but just avoiding possible armed confrontation with China.
Poor Philippines. They cannot even properly patrol their borders without risking an armed confrontation with China.
With an American military presence in the Philippines and with an illegal Chinese military presence in the SCS how exactly is Duterte standing "shoulder to shoulder" with China in the fight against terorism?
With an American military presence in the Philippines and with an illegal Chinese military presence in the SCS how exactly is Duterte standing "shoulder to shoulder" with China in the fight against terorism?
With China, we stand together in the war on criminality and illegal drug trade. We are shoulder to shoulder in the fight against terrorism and violent extremism. Make no mistake: there can be no progresswithout stability in Asia’s lands and waters.
Duterte has stated he does not want a military alliance with China.
But I‟m not breaking ties. I am not entering into military alliances with --- I‟m not up to it. Ayaw ko „yan.
https://pcoo.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/20180405-Speech_of_President_Rodrigo_Roa_Duterte_during_the_Salu-Salo_Kasama_ang_ating_Mahal_na_Pangulo_Dinner_Concert.pdfIs it because of the 2004 Memorandum on Defense Coperation?
And one of the things that we would like to assure you is that we would like the fullest cooperation between our two countries regarding transnational crimes and address terrorism.
And we welcome China's hosting of the 6th Annual Defense and Security Talks to discuss better cooperation.
China and the Philippines can do more to boost military and defense cooperation under the framework of the 2004 Memorandum of Understanding on Defense Cooperation.
I'd like to say it in a very short way --- we are with you in this and we would like to thank again for the military assistance you gave us.
It spelled the difference between victory and defeat, at least on a shorter term, that we are able to put down the terroristic activities that have perpetuated in Marawi.
On the side, it may not really be important but it could be a good historical note that the rifle that killed the number one terrorist, Hapilon, the rifle was one of those that killed...
That Chinese military assistance "spelled the different between victory and defeat" and that Hapilon was killed by a Chinese sniper rifle are both manifest lies. Does Xi Jinping know Duterte is lying?
I cannot find a copy of this 2004 Memorandum of Understanding on Defense Cooperation but here is a list of defence agreements signed by the Philippines and China.
Defense
- Agreement Between the Department of National Defense of the Republic of the Philippines and the Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China on the Establishment of the Offices of the Defense and Armed Forces Attachés. Signed in Beijing on 29 July 1996.
- Agreement between the Government of the Republic of the Philippines and the Government of the People’s Republic of China on the Utilization of the Military Engineering Equipment Assistance Loan Provided by China to the Philippines. Signed in Beijing on 29 July 1996.
- Memorandum of Understanding on Defense Cooperation between the Department of National Defense of the Republic of the Philippines and the Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China. Signed in Beijing on 8 November 2004.
- Agreement between the Department of National Defense of the Republic of the Philippines and the Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China on China’s Provision of Military Aid Gratis to the Philippines. Signed in Beijing on 8 November 2004.
- Agreement between the Department of National Defense of the Republic of the Philippines and the Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China on China's Provision of Military Aid Gratis to the Philippines. Signed in Beijing on 10 October 2006.
- Agreement between the Department of National Defense of the Republic of the Philippines and the Ministry of National Defence of the People's Republic of China on China's Provision of Military Aid Gratis to the Philippines. Signed in Beijing on 08 December 2009.
http://beijingpe.dfa.gov.ph/phl-china-relations/84-phl-chn-relationsThat is six agreements on defence signed since 1996. Last year, November 2017, the Philippines and China signed another agreement on defence.
Both sides agree to enhance cooperation in defense and law enforcement. The Philippines appreciates the assistance from China in the fight against terrorism in Marawi and in the construction of two drug rehabilitation centers in Mindanao. China reiterates its firm support and assistance to the Philippines’ fight against terrorism and drug-related crimes, and the quick recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction of Marawi City.
- Memorandum of Understanding on Defense Industry Cooperation between the Department of National Defense of the Republic of the Philippines and the State Administration of Science Technology Industry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China
https://www.dfa.gov.ph/dfa-news/statements-and-advisoriesupdate/14643-joint-statement-between-the-government-of-the-republic-of-the-philippines-and-the-government-of-the-people-s-republic-of-chinaWithout reading these memorandums everything sounds very non-specific. How exactly are China and the Philippines planning on cooperating on defence? How do China's incursions into Philippine territory affect these agreements? How does the presence of US military troops affect these agreements?
Regardless of China's intentions in the SCS and despite Duterte's public anti-American persona, the US is not going anywhere anytime soon.
The Philippines should be grateful for such devotion. Without the US military they would be in a worse position than they are now.
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/04/14/1805911/us-says-ties-philippines-unbreakable-china-flaunts-military-might |
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