Martial Law: IS Threat Remains High

Usually for each week's martial law update I attempt to put together a narrative out of all the stories coming out of Mindanao. But since the end of the Marawi Siege there has been no strong narrative. Now almost a year since the imposition of martial law the Philippines is back to the beginning. Back to the war of attrition which has been happening for decades. A firefight here, as skirmish there, a raid over yonder way, a few terrorists surrendering, etc, etc. So for this week, and perhaps from here on out, I will do these updates like a newsreel from the 40s with each event being self-contained. Of course none of these events are really self-contained as they are each tiny bits of the over all war against terrorism.


Terrorist threat from ISIS remains high in the Philippines.

http://business.inquirer.net/249061/threat-remains-high-ph-study

The terrorism threat is seen to be “more severe” in the Philippines where overall country score remained “high” this 2018, a year after it was raised from “medium”. This comes after Islamist extremists seized control of Marawi for five months in 2017, promoting the government to declare martial law.  

The Marawi attack indicated that IS-linked factions were regrouping in southern Philippines and there was jihadist capability to mount attacks from there across Southeast Asia, the report said.

DND Sec Lorenzana has admitted not "appreciating" foreign intelligence reports in the lead up to the siege. Will he ignore this report too?

Peace talks with the commies. The President's daughter says, "No, Dad!"

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/04/14/1805766/sara-duterte-dad-no-peace-talks-reds

Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio yesterday appealed to her father the President to reconsider his decision to resume talks with communist rebels. 

“Mr. President, the country will move forward if the government is able to eliminate the rebels and end this senseless rebellion. Just like a battered lover, there is a time to finally say no to pain and suffering. No to peace talks,” Carpio said in a statement yesterday. 

“I believe the insurgency problem can only be ended peacefully if the NDF (National Democratic Front) and the Communist Party of the Philippines and its armed wing, the New People’s Army, are sincere, honest and committed to working toward the direction of peace and reciprocate the gesture offered by the government,” she added.  

Duterte-Carpio pointed out that so far, there are no indications the communists are willing to negotiate for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.  

She said history showed the communists are not to be trusted as they have consistently shown their deep-seated proclivity to sow hate, violence and extremism, destruction, and senseless killings. 

Duterte-Carpio said the CPP-NPA-NDF are groups motivated by the desire to overthrow the government and rule the nation.  

“For them, peace is not an option. And that’s because they are terrorists,” she said.

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/04/15/1806051/sara-duterte-sabotaging-peace-talks-anakbayan

“Obviously, the Davao City mayor is toeing the line of the military and the Duterte government’s security council and defense department. They are in a chorus to sabotage the potential resumption of peace talks,” Anakpawis Rep. Ariel Casilao said.

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1504862/Davao/Local-News/Peace-talks-on

"The President said that we have to start resuming negotiations within 60 days, not finish an agreement, because that will take a long time," he said. 

Dureza said that they are "back on track" but there were a lot of confidential things that happened that he does not want to disclose publicly yet. 

He said these negotiations will be a "quiet one" having learned from their past experience. 

Dureza said there will be no public announcements of outcomes unless some very important agreements have been arrived at because this is their last chance. 

"As we speak, efforts are ongoing, now but we would like keep everything from the public until outcomes already are done. 'Di ba dati peace negotiations, before we take off and travel, we announce that 'we are going there to meet with them' and then eventually people would just be frustrated and come back home," he said.

Showing a bit of common sense, Sara Duterte has urged her father, President Duterte, to not resume peace talks with the communists. After all they are not for peace. They are for war and "are not to be trusted as they have consistently shown their deep-seated proclivity to sow hate, violence and extremism, destruction, and senseless killings."

In response to this sensible analysis Rep. Ariel Casilao has accused her of conniving with the AFP to sabotage the resumption of peace talks. Nothing like a little over the top drama to get your name in the papers and that is what Rep. Casilao is doing: drama. Sara Duterte has merely voiced her opinion. The peace talks are going full speed ahead. Too bad we won't know for sure though because this time the peace talks will be top secret unless an outcome is reached.

The rebuilding of Marawi is about to get underway very soon. It won't be cheap.

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/04/06/1803467/official-marawi-rehab-cost-least-p72-billion

Del Rosario said that between P17 to 20 billion of the amount would be devoted to the rehabilitation of Marawi’s most devastated villages. 

The remaining P55 billion will be spent on villages outside of the most devastated zone in the Islamic City, Del Rosario said. 

“It has a total budgetary requirement of 55 billion pesos, plus more or less 17 to 20 billion for the most affected areas,” Del Rosario said in a press briefing in the palace. 

Del Rosario said that the P17 billion allotted for the rehabilitation of Marawi’s most devastated areas could increase to P20 billion depending on the Bangon Marawi Consortium, a group of Chinese and Filipino companies which will build the town’s critical infrastructure. 

Senate President Pro Tempore Ralph Recto meanwhile urged the government to recognize Maranao culture and resilience as the strongest building blocks in Marawi’s reconstruction. 

He added that the government should treat local residents as active partners and not merely as passive receivers of rebuilding plans. 

“While we welcome help from all countries, at the end of the day it should be a Made by Maranao enterprise and not a Made in China nor a Made in the USA project,” he said.

Sen. Ralph Recto need not worry about the rebuilding of Marawi being a "Made in the USA project." The Chinese have that all covered.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/984247/chinese-builders-plot-marawi-rehabilitation

The specialists, the third foreign group to visit Marawi, took pictures of the buildings destroyed in the fighting, measured roads and exchanged notes while soldiers stood guard. 

“This is a lot of work and there is a specific target of completion but we are ready to help the Philippine government,” said a senior Chinese engineer assigned to design roads and bridges who declined to be identified. “This is a big challenge but we can do it.” 

The Chinese team of engineers is part of the Bagong Marawi Consortium earlier identified by Eduardo del Rosario, TFBM chair, as the private sector entity that submitted an unsolicited master plan for the development and rehabilitation of Marawi. 

The development contract has not been awarded to the consortium but it has been allowed to survey and inspect the area most affected by the war. The consortium is led by a Filipino management company but is composed of five Chinese companies, including China State Engineering Corp. Ltd. 

“We are estimating 15 million tons of debris and our requirement to the potential developer is to complete that task in six months,” Millar said. 

Millar said President Duterte had given TFBM a specific deadline to complete the rehabilitation and rebuilding of Marawi. 

Del Rosario said they had 33 months to finish the work from the date of the groundbreaking. 

“President Duterte wants that when the Maranao return, they would be still returning to Marawi, but better, a better place to live in,” he said. 

“We want to make sure the Maranao are not outsiders in the plan. This is their city and they have a say on the master plan for Marawi,” said Harry Cuevas, consortium manager. 

The consortium proposed to undertake the rehabilitation and development of the war-torn city at a cost of P17.1 billion, but Del Rosario said this cost could still go up, depending on the final plans. 

“The President does not want photo ops. He wants groundbreaking, all the equipment in place and work to start immediately,” Millar said.

I can't find information about who the previous two foreign groups to visit Marawi are but I am suspecting they are also Chinese since a consortium of Chinese and Filipino contractors will be doing the rebuilding. The article is misleading when it says "the development contract has not been awarded to the consortium." What they really mean is none of the firms in the consortium which has been chosen to do the rebuilding have been awarded a contract yet. 

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/02/18/china-ph-consortium-chosen-to-rebuild-war-torn-marawi

Here is a list of companies that compose the Bangon Marawi Consortium provided by Del Rosario:

Chinese firms

China State Construction Engineering Corp., Ltd.

Anhui Huali Construction Group Co. Ltd. 

China Geo Engineering Corp.

TBEA Co., Ltd.

Shandong Jinyuan Homes Industry Development Co. Ltd. 

Local firms

Future Homes Philippines Inc.

A Brown Company, Inc.

H.S. Pow Construction and Development

SDW Realty & Development, Inc.

Needless to say the Maranos are not happy with this situation. They want to rebuild their city their way.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/982545/maranao-group-decries-plan-to-demolish-all-structures

Atar said his group was offended by Del Rosario’s recommendation to flatten all structures, which would include the Grand Mosque, inside 24 Marawi villages where the fighting between IS and government forces was heaviest. 

Atar said the Maranao people were hurt when Del Rosario said they should already move their belongings out of the area to give way to the plan to flatten it. 

Del Rosario, however, said the group’s criticism was “not the general sentiment.” 

RMSM, he said, does not represent “even 1 percent of the total populace 

The CBCP said Dela Peña agreed to suggestions to demolish the cathedral and the bishop’s residence “because they’re no longer structurally sound.” 

Demolishing the church structures would start in June and could take up to 10 months, the CBCP said.

Two things. First of all if it will take 10 months to demolish just the Marawi Cathedral then how will  any developer be able to remove 15 million tons of debris from the entire city in only 6 months!?

Second of all if every structure in Marawi is flattened, including the Grand Mosque, will the new structures which rise in their place really be Marawi? This is an age old problem known as "The Ship of Theseus."

The ship of Theseus, also known as Theseus's paradox, is a thought experiment that raises the question of whether an object that has had all of its components replaced remains fundamentally the same object.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus

The Maranos say no. Duterte says yes. The debate will continue to the end of time.

Martial law is slowly rolling the curtain back on just how violent the Moro people are.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/982542/martial-law-disrupts-moro-love-affair-with-guns

The love affair with guns by residents and officials of 10 towns in the province could be nearing its end as dozens of firearms, all unlicensed, had been turned over to an Army team that would pry the weapons forcibly out of their owners’ hands if these had not been surrendered. 

The impact of martial law was being felt among townsfolk and community leaders who had treated guns as family heirloom, status symbol and security shield. 

Among those who gave up their guns was the family of Rakeem (not his real name) who owned at least 20 firearms, some of them high-powered. 

Like many Moro families, Rakeem’s kept guns because of a rido, or clan war, with another family.

Maj. Gen. Arnel Dela Vega, commander of the Army’s Sixth ID, said since January the military had already collected 338 loose firearms in Maguindanao alone. 

The figure was not even significant, he said, because the estimated number of unlicensed guns in the province was at least 25,000.

What more proof does one need that the ARMM is a region full of violence? Old habits die hard and when and if martial law is ever lifted these people will go right back to their clan wars. 

The ARMM has no problem embracing violence or terrorists. In fact ARMM officials are welcoming Abu Sayyaf surrenderees with open arms.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/982398/armm-governor-backs-dutertes-offer-to-abu-sayyaf

Of course the ARMM backs this plan. The leadership is basically MILF and MNLF. Abu Sayyaf are their ideological brothers.

https://www.philstar.com/nation/2018/04/21/1808095/armm-helps-former-rebels-return-normal-life

More than a hundred of the former Abu Sayyaf militants not wanted for any criminal offense appeared at the headquarters of the 4th Special Forces Battalion in Barangay Cabunbata in Isabela City in Basilan on April 17 to grace the joint launching by the ARMM government of the Program Against Violent Extremism, or PAVE. 

The PAVE is supported by Galvez and Uy and the provincial government of Basilan and all of its constituent-municipal local government units in the province. 

Hataman said Saturday he is optimistic Galvez can help the ARMM get the support of the Department of Justice in working out the speedy litigation of pending cases against Basilan-based Abu Sayyaf militants for them to have a chance to start life anew as peaceful Filipino citizens. 

“In PAVE, we don’t give special treatment to Abu Sayyaf members who are being prosecuted for criminal offenses. It is always emphasized to those whose surrender are being secured by local officials and community elders that if there are cases against them, only the court has authority to either convict them, or exonerate them. They should have their day in court,” Hataman said. 

One of those present in the April 17 launching of the PAVE was an 11-year-old child, Tariq, who worked as courier of improvised explosive devices the Abu Sayyaf detonated in selected targets. 

Officials gifted him with a new bicycle to hasten his rehabilitation, now being facilitated by experts from the ARMM’s social welfare department. 

Tariq said he is apprehensive of possible retaliations by families that suffered from Abu Sayyaf atrocities. 

“I want to live a normal life now,” he said in Yakan dialect.

That child will never live a normal life. Not in the ARMM. Not as a former member of Abu Sayyaf. He will always have a target on his back.  So will all these men who surrender. Ostensibly this PAVE program is to help Abu Sayyaf surrenderees who have no criminal record against them.  But isn't belonging to a terrorist organisation which seeks the overthrow of the government a crime in itself???

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/18/18/139-abu-bandits-surrender-to-get-livelihood-aid

Some 139 Abu Sayyaf bandits have returned to the fold of the law and will receive livelihood assistance from the government. 

Under the Program Against Violence and Extremism (PAVE), the former bandits will get various assistance. 

PAVE, initiated by the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, is part of the government's efforts to reintegrate militants to mainstream society. 

Part of the program is to provide sustainable livelihood to them through skills training courses offered by the Technical Education Skills and Development Authority. 

Omar Khayam Dalagan, executive director of TESDA-ARMM, said they allocated P20,000 for each surrenderer that would include allowances and tool kits. 

He said this is to ensure the surrenderer would attend to their training. 

During Tuesday's launching of the program, former militant Ruben Cuevas asked for forgiveness for what he had done. 

He was part of the Abu Sayyaf Group for 15 years under the leadership of Nurhassan Jamiri.

139 Abu Sayyaf surrenders times 20,000 pesos equals 2,780,000 pesos! What a waste of money. Poor Ruben Cuevas. A militant for 15 years because.....well ask him. But now he wants forgiveness!  Forgiveness?? Ok forgive him just before he is executed for sedition and rebellion and maybe even kidnapping and murder! Pretty simple. With child soldiers it's definitely not so simple.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/984260/former-abu-sayyaf-sniper-aims-to-regain-lost-childhood

Ten-year-old “Tony” has recently gone back to school, in a madrassa where he can continue learning Arabic—and be a child again. 

Only four years ago, Tony did not even have the opportunity to play, let alone attend classes. 

Instead, he lugged around an M4 assault rifle and was attacking and evading government troops as a member of the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group. 

The boy proved to be no ordinary fighter and was deemed one of the sharpest among the 30 young combatants under the command of Motong Indama, a  younger cousin of Abu Sayyaf leader Furudji Indama. 

“The training took about a year,” recalled Tony.  “I was taught how to handle a gun. The [Abu Sayyaf members] were so happy with me that they called me the Tipo-Tipo sniper,” he added. 

Tipo-Tipo was the Basilan town that his group had tried to overrun in 2016, setting off clashes with government soldiers that dragged on for three months. 

Though Tony had suffered his first combat wounds in a skirmish even before those encounters, he emerged more gung-ho and unafraid of death. 

When Motong surrendered in July 2016, Tony was one of the 11 among his men who followed. The boy now lives with his uncles under the close supervision of Sumisip town officials. 

When word got around that Motong was turning himself in, one of Tony’s siblings who had dragged him into the group thought that his kid brother had had enough. 

“Now I just want to study in the Islamic school,” the boy said. 

Tony was one of the 179 Abu Sayyaf surrenderers from Basilan and Sulu whom the regional government of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) hopes to assist in their return to normal life through an initiative called Program Against Violent Extremism (PAVE). 

The governor assured critics that the selected PAVE beneficiaries were “those without [criminal] cases.”

This story is incredible. And I mean that literally. Its simply not credible. A 6 year old boy recruited as a sniper and lugging around an M4 which is about as big as him? How did he manage to carry the weight of the fully loaded rifle and the weight of the ammo strapped around his chest and waist or in his backpack? The sharpest shooter in the bunch? How did this frail little boy even manage the kickback from the weapon? And then he was wounded and facing death he emerged stronger than ever. It's like a movie script and perhaps it is. It gets your heart in your throat and catches all your sympathies so that you start to think the PAVE program might be a good thing after all because "think of the children!" At any rate "Tony" will now happily continue his studies at the madrassa. You know, the Islamic school where jihadi values are instilled in young students. 

Study hard young man!